Coventry City vs Aston Villa
Our model puts an Aston Villa win at 62.6% in this EFL Cup fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 0.8 to 1.88.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Coventry City at 2.95, which implies about 33.9%. Our model has it at 15.4% — 18.5 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Aston Villa carry a rating of 1861 against 1585 for Coventry City, a gap of 276 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Aston Villa's attack should find room against Coventry City's defence, by 211 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.