Botafogo vs Grêmio

Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 22:30

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Blowout AlertHigh probability of dominant scoreline — 47% confidence

Win probability

47%

Botafogo wins

27%

Draw

27%

Grêmio wins

xG Home

1.45

Botafogo

Blowout %

47%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.02

Grêmio

Analysis

Our model puts a Botafogo win at 46.8% in this Brasileirao fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.45 to 1.02.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1490 against 1490, a gap of 0 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Margin risk

Our blowout flag reads 46.5%: roughly one simulation in 2 ends with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.

Published 11 September 2026 · aleavici-football

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