Bayer Leverkusen vs NK Celje
Our model puts a Bayer Leverkusen win at 83.4% in this UEFA Europa League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.97 to 0.59.
The ratings gap
Bayer Leverkusen carry a rating of 1811 against 1550 for NK Celje, a gap of 260 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Bayer Leverkusen's attack should find room against NK Celje's defence, by 258 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Margin risk
Our blowout flag reads 79.4%: more than half of all simulations end with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.