Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Prague
Our model puts a Sparta Prague win at 68% in this UEFA Europa League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 1.03 to 2.49.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price the draw at 4.2, which implies about 23.8%. Our model has it at 17.8% — 6 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Sparta Prague carry a rating of 1626 against 1494 for Ararat-Armenia, a gap of 132 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Sparta Prague's attack should find room against Ararat-Armenia's defence, by 139 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.