Anderlecht vs Lyon

Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 19:00

Win probability

25%

Anderlecht wins

26%

Draw

49%

Lyon wins

xG Home

1.03

Anderlecht

Blowout %

14%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.56

Lyon

Analysis

Our model puts a Lyon win at 49.3% in this UEFA Europa League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.03 to 1.56.

The ratings gap

Lyon carry a rating of 1759 against 1611 for Anderlecht, a gap of 148 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.

Attack against defence

The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Lyon's attack should find room against Anderlecht's defence, by 125 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.

Market odds

3.35

Anderlecht

3.75

Draw

2.05

Lyon

Published 11 September 2026 · aleavici-football

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