Liverpool vs Tottenham Hotspur
Our model puts a Liverpool win at 59.4% in this EFL Cup fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.88 to 0.92.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Tottenham Hotspur at 3.8, which implies about 26.3%. Our model has it at 18.2% — 8.1 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Liverpool carry a rating of 1846 against 1727 for Tottenham Hotspur, a gap of 118 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Liverpool's attack should find room against Tottenham Hotspur's defence, by 184 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Liverpool are off their season peak
Liverpool peaked at 1896 this season and sit at 1846 today, 50 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Margin risk
Our blowout flag reads 61.1%: more than half of all simulations end with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.