Ipswich Town vs Arsenal
Our model puts an Arsenal win at 65.5% in this EFL Cup fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 0.85 to 2.1.
The ratings gap
Arsenal carry a rating of 2020 against 1616 for Ipswich Town, a gap of 404 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Arsenal's attack should find room against Ipswich Town's defence, by 252 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Arsenal are on a run
Arsenal arrive on 9 straight wins, part of 11 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.