Genoa vs Sudtirol
Our model puts a Genoa win at 62.2% in this Coppa Italia fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 1.86 to 0.79.
The ratings gap
Genoa carry a rating of 1617 against 1476 for Sudtirol, a gap of 141 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Genoa's attack should find room against Sudtirol's defence, by 134 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Sudtirol are hard to beat
Sudtirol have gone 14 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.
Margin risk
Our blowout flag reads 45.3%: roughly one simulation in 2 ends with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.