Fiorentina vs Pisa
Our model puts a Fiorentina win at 69.6% in this Coppa Italia fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.16 to 0.73.
The ratings gap
Fiorentina carry a rating of 1666 against 1483 for Pisa, a gap of 183 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Fiorentina's attack should find room against Pisa's defence, by 157 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Margin risk
Our blowout flag reads 63.7%: more than half of all simulations end with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.