Elche vs Real Madrid
Our model puts a Real Madrid win at 67.8% in this La Liga fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 0.82 to 2.19.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Real Madrid at 1.3, which implies about 76.9%. Our model has it at 67.8% — 9.1 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Real Madrid carry a rating of 1934 against 1615 for Elche, a gap of 319 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Real Madrid's attack should find room against Elche's defence, by 317 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.