Torino vs AS Roma
Our model puts an AS Roma win at 55.3% in this Serie A fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 0.97 to 1.75.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price AS Roma at 1.53, which implies about 65.4%. Our model has it at 55.3% — 10.1 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
AS Roma carry a rating of 1830 against 1632 for Torino, a gap of 198 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, AS Roma's attack should find room against Torino's defence, by 239 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
AS Roma are on a run
AS Roma arrive on 8 straight wins, part of 10 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.