San Diego FC vs Philadelphia Union

Monday, 14 September 2026 at 01:00

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Blowout AlertHigh probability of dominant scoreline — 30% confidence

Win probability

35%

San Diego FC wins

26%

Draw

39%

Philadelphia Union wins

xG Home

1.27

San Diego FC

Blowout %

30%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.37

Philadelphia Union

Analysis

Our model puts a Philadelphia Union win at 39.2% in this MLS fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.27 to 1.37.

Philadelphia Union are on a run

Philadelphia Union arrive on 3 straight wins, part of 9 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.

Margin risk

Our blowout flag reads 30.2%: roughly one simulation in 3 ends with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.

Market odds

2.55

San Diego FC

3.50

Draw

2.40

Philadelphia Union

Published 11 September 2026 · aleavici-football

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