RC Celta Fortuna vs Eibar

Monday, 14 September 2026 at 18:30

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Blowout AlertHigh probability of dominant scoreline — 29% confidence

Win probability

24%

RC Celta Fortuna wins

24%

Draw

52%

Eibar wins

xG Home

1.08

RC Celta Fortuna

Blowout %

29%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.69

Eibar

Analysis

Our model puts an Eibar win at 51.5% in this Segunda Division fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.08 to 1.69.

Eibar are on a run

Eibar arrive on 3 straight wins, part of 3 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.

Margin risk

Our blowout flag reads 29%: roughly one simulation in 3 ends with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.

Published 11 September 2026 · aleavici-football

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