Leeds United vs Newcastle United

Monday, 14 September 2026 at 19:00

⚡

Blowout AlertHigh probability of dominant scoreline — 30% confidence

Win probability

37%

Leeds United wins

26%

Draw

37%

Newcastle United wins

xG Home

1.31

Leeds United

Blowout %

30%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.33

Newcastle United

Analysis

Our model puts a Newcastle United win at 37.3% in this Premier League fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.31 to 1.33.

Attack against defence

The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Newcastle United's attack should find room against Leeds United's defence, by 126 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.

Margin risk

Our blowout flag reads 29.5%: roughly one simulation in 3 ends with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.

Market odds

2.40

Leeds United

3.40

Draw

2.85

Newcastle United

Published 11 September 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export