Guadalajara vs Pumas UNAM

Monday, 14 September 2026 at 01:07

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Blowout AlertHigh probability of dominant scoreline — 42% confidence

Win probability

56%

Guadalajara wins

24%

Draw

20%

Pumas UNAM wins

xG Home

1.78

Guadalajara

Blowout %

42%

Dominant win

xG Away

0.95

Pumas UNAM

Analysis

Our model puts a Guadalajara win at 56.3% in this Liga MX fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.78 to 0.95.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1492 against 1509, a gap of 17 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Guadalajara are hard to beat

Guadalajara have gone 6 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.

Margin risk

Our blowout flag reads 41.7%: roughly one simulation in 2 ends with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.

Published 11 September 2026 · aleavici-football

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