Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahce

Monday, 14 September 2026 at 17:00

Win probability

16%

Gaziantep FK wins

22%

Draw

63%

Fenerbahce wins

xG Home

0.84

Gaziantep FK

Blowout %

14%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.95

Fenerbahce

Analysis

Our model puts a Fenerbahce win at 62.9% in this Süper Lig fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 0.84 to 1.95.

The ratings gap

Fenerbahce carry a rating of 1716 against 1503 for Gaziantep FK, a gap of 213 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.

Attack against defence

The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Fenerbahce's attack should find room against Gaziantep FK's defence, by 211 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.

Market odds

5.25

Gaziantep FK

4.20

Draw

1.54

Fenerbahce

Published 11 September 2026 · aleavici-football

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