US Avellino vs Palermo

Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 15:15

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Blowout AlertHigh probability of dominant scoreline — 21% confidence

Win probability

28%

US Avellino wins

26%

Draw

46%

Palermo wins

xG Home

1.13

US Avellino

Blowout %

21%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.53

Palermo

Analysis

Our model puts a Palermo win at 46.2% in this Serie B fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.13 to 1.53.

Attack against defence

The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Palermo's attack should find room against US Avellino's defence, by 101 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.

Palermo are on a run

Palermo arrive on 6 straight wins, part of 6 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.

Market odds

3.75

US Avellino

3.20

Draw

2.00

Palermo

Published 11 September 2026 · aleavici-football

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