Tenerife vs Leganés
Our model puts a Tenerife win at 36.3% in this Segunda Division fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.23 to 1.23.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Tenerife at 2.25, which implies about 44.4%. Our model has it at 36.3% — 8.1 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Leganes carry a rating of 1564 against 1456 for Tenerife, a gap of 108 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Tenerife's attack will struggle to break down Leganés's defence, by 115 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Margin risk
Our blowout flag reads 27.5%: roughly one simulation in 4 ends with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.