Sassuolo vs Juventus
Our model puts a Juventus win at 53.8% in this Serie A fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.02 to 1.74.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Juventus at 1.61, which implies about 62.1%. Our model has it at 53.8% — 8.3 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Juventus carry a rating of 1820 against 1643 for Sassuolo, a gap of 177 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Juventus's attack should find room against Sassuolo's defence, by 181 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.