Santos vs Cruzeiro

Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 00:00

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Blowout AlertHigh probability of dominant scoreline — 29% confidence

Win probability

39%

Santos wins

27%

Draw

35%

Cruzeiro wins

xG Home

1.30

Santos

Blowout %

29%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.21

Cruzeiro

Analysis

Our model puts a Santos win at 38.5% in this Brasileirao fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.3 to 1.21.

Margin risk

Our blowout flag reads 29.4%: roughly one simulation in 3 ends with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.

Market odds

2.55

Santos

3.30

Draw

2.70

Cruzeiro

Published 11 September 2026 · aleavici-football

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