San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo FC

Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 02:30

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Blowout AlertHigh probability of dominant scoreline — 32% confidence

Win probability

34%

San Jose Earthquakes wins

27%

Draw

40%

Houston Dynamo FC wins

xG Home

1.22

San Jose Earthquakes

Blowout %

32%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.36

Houston Dynamo FC

Analysis

Our model puts a Houston Dynamo FC win at 39.9% in this MLS fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.22 to 1.36.

Where we disagree with the market

Bookmakers price San Jose Earthquakes at 2.3, which implies about 43.5%. Our model has it at 33.6% — 9.9 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.

Margin risk

Our blowout flag reads 31.5%: roughly one simulation in 3 ends with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.

Market odds

2.30

San Jose Earthquakes

3.40

Draw

2.85

Houston Dynamo FC

Published 11 September 2026 · aleavici-football

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