Real Sociedad vs Atlético Madrid
Our model puts an Atlético Madrid win at 43.7% in this La Liga fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.15 to 1.45.
The ratings gap
Atlético Madrid carry a rating of 1790 against 1686 for Real Sociedad, a gap of 104 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Atlético Madrid's attack should find room against Real Sociedad's defence, by 188 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Atlético Madrid are off their season peak
Atlético Madrid peaked at 1897 this season and sit at 1790 today, 107 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Margin risk
Our blowout flag reads 26.5%: roughly one simulation in 4 ends with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.