RB Leipzig vs Hamburg SV
Our model puts a RB Leipzig win at 77.6% in this Bundesliga fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.59 to 0.66.
The ratings gap
RB Leipzig carry a rating of 1768 against 1584 for Hamburg SV, a gap of 185 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, RB Leipzig's attack should find room against Hamburg SV's defence, by 210 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Margin risk
Our blowout flag reads 76%: more than half of all simulations end with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.