PAOK vs Aris
Our model puts an Aris win at 63.2% in this Greek Super League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 0.91 to 2.05.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price PAOK at 1.49, which implies about 67.1%. Our model has it at 16% — 51.1 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
PAOK carry a rating of 1718 against 1622 for Aris, a gap of 96 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, PAOK's attack should find room against Aris's defence, by 142 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.