Mirassol vs Vitória

Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 19:00

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Blowout AlertHigh probability of dominant scoreline — 34% confidence

Win probability

46%

Mirassol wins

27%

Draw

27%

Vitória wins

xG Home

1.42

Mirassol

Blowout %

34%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.00

Vitória

Analysis

Our model puts a Mirassol win at 46.3% in this Brasileirao fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.42 to 1.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1510 against 1487, a gap of 23 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Margin risk

Our blowout flag reads 33.6%: roughly one simulation in 3 ends with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.

Published 11 September 2026 · aleavici-football

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