Manchester United vs Manchester City
Our model puts a Manchester City win at 44.2% in this Premier League fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.15 to 1.47.
The ratings gap
Manchester City carry a rating of 1951 against 1813 for Manchester United, a gap of 138 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Manchester City's attack should find room against Manchester United's defence, by 243 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Manchester City are on a run
Manchester City arrive on 4 straight wins, part of 4 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.