Mallorca vs CD Sabadell
Our model puts a Mallorca win at 68.9% in this Segunda Division fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.07 to 0.7.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Mallorca at 1.74, which implies about 57.5%. Our model has it at 68.9% — 11.4 points higher. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Mallorca carry a rating of 1637 against 1513 for CD Sabadell, a gap of 124 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Margin risk
Our blowout flag reads 58.6%: more than half of all simulations end with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.