Lille vs Troyes
Our model puts a Lille win at 69.8% in this Ligue 1 fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.16 to 0.72.
The ratings gap
Lille carry a rating of 1729 against 1547 for Troyes, a gap of 182 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Lille's attack should find room against Troyes's defence, by 110 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Margin risk
Our blowout flag reads 66.1%: more than half of all simulations end with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.