Lecce vs Monza

Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 13:00

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Blowout AlertHigh probability of dominant scoreline — 35% confidence

Win probability

50%

Lecce wins

26%

Draw

24%

Monza wins

xG Home

1.54

Lecce

Blowout %

35%

Dominant win

xG Away

0.97

Monza

Analysis

Our model puts a Lecce win at 50.2% in this Serie A fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.54 to 0.97.

Where we disagree with the market

Bookmakers price Monza at 2.75, which implies about 36.4%. Our model has it at 24% — 12.4 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.

Margin risk

Our blowout flag reads 35.2%: roughly one simulation in 3 ends with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.

Market odds

2.50

Lecce

3.05

Draw

2.75

Monza

Published 11 September 2026 · aleavici-football

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