Le Mans vs Lens

Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 15:15

Win probability

16%

Le Mans wins

22%

Draw

61%

Lens wins

xG Home

0.84

Le Mans

Blowout %

Dominant win

xG Away

1.88

Lens

Analysis

Our model puts a Lens win at 61.4% in this Ligue 1 fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 0.84 to 1.88.

The ratings gap

Lens carry a rating of 1750 against 1511 for Le Mans, a gap of 239 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.

Attack against defence

The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Lens's attack should find room against Le Mans's defence, by 198 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.

Market odds

4.70

Le Mans

4.10

Draw

1.67

Lens

Published 11 September 2026 · aleavici-football

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