IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF

Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 12:00

⚡

Blowout AlertHigh probability of dominant scoreline — 67% confidence

Win probability

40%

IF Elfsborg wins

25%

Draw

35%

Kalmar FF wins

xG Home

1.55

IF Elfsborg

Blowout %

67%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.44

Kalmar FF

Analysis

Our model puts an IF Elfsborg win at 40.2% in this Swedish Allsvenskan fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.55 to 1.44.

Where we disagree with the market

Bookmakers price IF Elfsborg at 1.83, which implies about 54.6%. Our model has it at 40.2% — 14.4 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.

Margin risk

Our blowout flag reads 66.9%: more than half of all simulations end with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.

Market odds

1.83

IF Elfsborg

3.60

Draw

3.95

Kalmar FF

Published 11 September 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export