Getafe vs Deportivo
Our model puts a Getafe win at 55.7% in this La Liga fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.66 to 0.87.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Getafe at 2.45, which implies about 40.8%. Our model has it at 55.7% — 14.9 points higher. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Getafe carry a rating of 1655 against 1548 for Deportivo, a gap of 106 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Deportivo's attack will struggle to break down Getafe's defence, by 133 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Deportivo are hard to beat
Deportivo have gone 7 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.
Margin risk
Our blowout flag reads 41%: roughly one simulation in 2 ends with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.