FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers

Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 00:30

⚡

Blowout AlertHigh probability of dominant scoreline — 65% confidence

Win probability

48%

FC Dallas wins

23%

Draw

29%

Portland Timbers wins

xG Home

1.86

FC Dallas

Blowout %

65%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.39

Portland Timbers

Analysis

Our model puts a FC Dallas win at 48.2% in this MLS fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.86 to 1.39.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1519 against 1507, a gap of 12 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Margin risk

Our blowout flag reads 64.7%: more than half of all simulations end with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.

Market odds

1.91

FC Dallas

3.90

Draw

3.40

Portland Timbers

Published 11 September 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export