Coventry City vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Our model puts a Brighton & Hove Albion win at 61.3% in this Premier League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 0.84 to 1.88.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Coventry City at 3.95, which implies about 25.3%. Our model has it at 16.5% — 8.8 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Brighton & Hove Albion carry a rating of 1784 against 1585 for Coventry City, a gap of 199 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Brighton & Hove Albion's attack should find room against Coventry City's defence, by 214 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.