Chicago Fire FC vs New England Revolution
Our model puts a Chicago Fire FC win at 42.5% in this MLS fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.47 to 1.24.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Chicago Fire FC at 1.77, which implies about 56.5%. Our model has it at 42.5% — 14 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1518 against 1519, a gap of 1 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Chicago Fire FC are hard to beat
Chicago Fire FC have gone 7 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.
Margin risk
Our blowout flag reads 46.7%: roughly one simulation in 2 ends with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.