Amed SFK vs Istanbul Basaksehir
Our model puts an Istanbul Basaksehir win at 53.5% in this Süper Lig fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.07 to 1.77.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Amed SFK at 2.55, which implies about 39.2%. Our model has it at 22.9% — 16.3 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Istanbul Basaksehir carry a rating of 1618 against 1505 for Amed SFK, a gap of 113 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Istanbul Basaksehir's attack should find room against Amed SFK's defence, by 154 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Margin risk
Our blowout flag reads 30.8%: roughly one simulation in 3 ends with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.